The key figures from a business perspective contained in the economic forecasts published by the Fairfax Group include:
- GDP – Australia – an average of 2.7%
- GDP – China – an average of 6.5%
- GDP – USA – an average of 2.5%
The economists who participated in the survey do not believe that there will be a recession in Australia in 2018 with the probability of a recession being forecast at 15% with the range being from 0% to 20%.
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The ASX 200 is forecast to be in the vicinity of 6,200 points by 31 December 2018. This is a reflection of the overall confidence in the market based on forecast profits and capital gains.
The Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate is expected by most of the economists to increase from the current 1.5% to around 2.25% by December 2018 with the average forecast rate for 2018 being 1.7%.
The exchange rate of the Australian dollar and the USA dollar is expected to be in the vicinity of $0.78 USA per Australian dollar (with a range from $0.65-$0.84).
The scene is set for a continuation of the economic activities that were evident in 2017. If you would like to discuss the effect that these forecasts might have on your business, please do not hesitate to contact Collins Hume on 02 6686 3000.